🇺🇸🇨🇺US-Cuba negotiations 🟢On March 13, Cuban President M. Díaz-Canel confirmed Havana’s participation in negotiations with Washington. This decision was made in accordance with Raúl Castro’s policies and in coordination with the highest-level party and government officials. 🟢The process began in late January. Several communication channels now exist between Havana and Washington. One channel is managed by Brigadier General A. Castro Espín of the Interior Ministry, who is Raúl’s son and previously led talks with the Obama administration. 🟢The second channel is overseen by Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl’s grandson. Although he does not hold an official government position or has direct ties to the Communist Party, he was present at Díaz-Canel’s address regarding the talks with the US. Washington believes that even after Raúl’s formal resignation, he and his family still hold real influence and control, particularly over the security apparatus. 🟢A more complex US policy toward Cuba is taking shape. Washington is not interested in complete regime change due to associated risks, such as the lack of guarantees that it would not lead to a mass influx of illegal migrants and the absence of an adequate alternative to the current government. The White House is counting on a Venezuela-like scenario: making the island economically dependent on the US and initiating deep economic transformations without fundamentally changing the political system in the medium term. 🟢In recent statements by Secretary of State Rubio on Cuba, there has not been a single mention of political transition or elections. Instead, the emphasis is placed on the economic agenda. American officials who worked on the Cuban issue under Obama argue that Trump needs to engage with the Cuban diaspora and convince the banking sector to work with small- and medium-sized Cuban enterprises (MIPYMES), which could help revive the island’s economy. 🟢The Cuban authorities are not opposed. On March 16, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment O. Fraga (a Castro family member) announced that Havana would permit Cubans living abroad to invest in and conduct business on the island within the framework of existing legislation. 🟢While the initiative has received positive feedback from Cuban citizens, it has been sharply criticized by the Cuban diaspora in Florida. They believe the Trump administration is trying to sell them a narrative of Cuban "perestroika" and push them to invest in the "regime's" economy without political reforms. 🟢The best the United States can hope for in Cuba is an agreement to open up the island’s economy. The Cuban authorities would not oppose an economic model similar to Vietnam's but oriented toward the US market. 🟢The two governments are seeking the best approach to each other. Mediation efforts by the Catholic Church also play an important role. Both sides have good relations with the Holy See, which has prior negotiation experience from the Obama era. 🟢The United States is interested in resolving the Cuban issue through negotiations because there are no other tools of pressure besides a military operation. There is no talk of a complete regime change. The Americans are willing to limit their demands to economic reforms that could lay the groundwork for political transformation in the medium and long term. The Cuban authorities are cautiously assessing the situation, clarifying the US position, and analyzing where they can demonstrate flexibility under the current challenging conditions. #CSAI #LatinAmerica