🇭🇺Balance of power in Hungary ahead of parliamentary elections 🟢Hungary will hold parliamentary elections on April 12, expected to pose the most serious challenge to the ruling Fidesz party and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the last 16 years. The main competitor is the opposition Tisza party led by Péter Magyar. 🟢According to polls by Medián and Magyar Társadalomkutató, the most accurate sociological agencies in the last election cycle, Tisza maintains a nationwide lead of about 10%. In the past month, however, Fidesz has gained several percentage points, narrowing the gap. 🟢The Ukrainian issue has become a key element of the election strategy. Fidesz's official slogan — "We will not be a colony of Ukraine" — leverages the crisis over the suspension of Russian oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline. The government frames the situation as a coordinated attack by Kiev and Brussels aimed at destabilizing Hungary and bringing a puppet candidate to power. 🟢The actions of the Ukrainian authorities have objectively contributed to the consolidation around Fidesz. Ukraine has repeatedly postponed the restoration of transit, demonstratively ignored the Hungarian delegation, while V. Zelensky's statements about his intention to "give Viktor Orbán's number to his armed forces", together with the Ukrainian ambassador's publication of a photo with a pierced Hungarian flag, have been used by the ruling party as confirmation of the external threat point. This could have a decisive impact on the approximately 20% of undecided voters. 🟢Despite Tisza's higher national ratings, Hungary's electoral system (106 single-member constituencies based on plurality and 93 seats allocated via national lists) gives Fidesz a significant advantage. The ruling party dominates rural areas and small towns, has an extensive network of local activists, and has substantial administrative resources. The 2024-2026 by-elections have shown that Tisza still lags behind in its ability to mobilize voters locally. 🟢The most likely scenario is that Fidesz secures the single-member constituencies while losing the national list vote. Given the possible entry of the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) party into parliament, a coalition of Fidesz and its allies could secure 100-116 seats, which would allow it to maintain a majority, though not a constitutional one. #CSAI