Excellent analysis by @SamriddhiVij on why regime change in Iran is difficult. Samriddhi argues that the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February 2026, amid an unprecedented escalation of US-Israeli military strikes, prompted wide-ranging speculations regarding regime change. The assumption was that the fall of the Islamic Republic’s paramount authority would inevitably precipitate the collapse of the regime itself. Yet, as of mid-March 2026, the Iranian state has not fractured. Instead, the Assembly of Experts moved with ruthless efficiency to appoint his 56-year-old son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the third Supreme Leader. It is important to understand why the regime continues to function despite this catastrophic shock. The fundamental miscalculation is the belief that removing the leader guarantees the regime’s collapse. Iran is not a fragile, personalist dictatorship but a highly entrenched, institutionalised theocracy fortified by vast economic patronage networks. @orfonline @orfmiddleeast https://orfme.org/expert-speak/why-regime-change-in-iran-is-difficult/?fbclid=PAb21jcAQuELRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZA81NjcwNjczNDMzNTI0MjcAAaczxiL1dXmLGGZorzmbWeezXMULbOuLq38oOKLvfxwUGzedgouPaumEuwukew_aem_T1c-qAb4B6u_UhhalVEXsg