Scorpi18 | Market Insights

⚠️🇺🇸#bonds #us #debt #history Historically, when US government interest expenses were at peak levels, 10-year US Treasury yields typically traded around 6–7%. Today, those expenses are again at an all-time high, yet yields remain near 4%, suggesting the market may be underpricing fiscal risks. According to TS Lombard, a rapid move toward 6–7% yields is unlikely in the near term. However, if economic growth and inflation accelerate, and markets begin reacting to rising prices rather than Federa...

🥇 #gold #seasonality DB: historically, January and February are good months for gold. 🌟 Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser

🇺🇸#stocks #us #seasonality The second half of September has historically been a weak period for the US stock market. Lately, though, experts say that historical market patterns have begun to falter. 🌟 Subscribe

🇪🇺#seasonality #europe #stocks Barclays: seasonality of European equities by sector/industry. 🌟 Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser

🇺🇸#VIX #stocks #us #history A rare event happened recently: the US stock market volatility index (VIX) fell for four months in a row. Historically, the S&P 500 has been higher nine months later every single time after this happened. 🌟 Subscribe

🇺🇸#buyback #stocks #us U.S. companies are actively repurchasing their own shares through buyback programs. Historically, buyback programs have been a significant driver of S&P 500 growth (chart) 🌟 Subscribe

🇺🇸#USD #fx #short #sentiment Investment assets managers have significantly ramped up their bets against the dollar, with short positions reaching record highs. Historically, such extreme levels of bearish sentiment have often marked a turning point, with the dollar index finding a bottom and staging a rebound. Currently, the dollar (DXY) looks oversold against a basket of global currencies. 🌟 Subscribe

⚠️🇺🇸#inflation #us #macro Inflation in the U.S. continues to mirror the patterns of the 1970s. The current situation bears a strong resemblance to that era - but instead of an oil embargo, the U.S. now faces restrictions on rare earth metals. Amid ongoing trade wars, the commodities market could experience a sharp upswing similar to the 1970s. — experts ——————————— MarketDesk: Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s (chart) 🌟 Subscribe

🌎#fx #maro #history many investors fear that the US dollar may continue to weaken due to rising government debt and risky fiscal policies in the US. As a result, they are willing to consider other global currencies to partially replace the dollar in their investment portfolios. Below is a classification of some of these currencies: 🔸 Cyclical currencies (#AUD, #NZD, #CAD, #SEK, #NOK, #GBP): perform well in strong equity markets but lag in downturns. Offer higher yields with greater risk and lo...

🇨🇳#stocks #china #history Compared to the past, Chinese stocks don’t look as cheap anymore. 🌟 Subscribe