CRYPTO GLASS REVIEW

BTC : Key Stabilization Zones URPD highlights a dense supply cluster between $66.9k and $70.6k. In past cycles, areas with such concentrated cost basis often acted as short-term buffers, where sell pressure was more likely to meet responsive demand rather than cascade lower. This zone is not a bottom call. It’s a stabilization candidate.

BTC : Puell Multiple — Stress Phase Ongoing Puell Multiple remains below 1.0, confirming sustained pressure on miner revenues. The 30DMA continues to trend lower, signaling that profitability stress is still building. Historically, price has consistently…

BTC : Puell Multiple — Stress Phase Ongoing Puell Multiple remains below 1.0, confirming sustained pressure on miner revenues. The 30DMA continues to trend lower, signaling that profitability stress is still building. Historically, price has consistently moved toward the red zone. This cycle is unlikely to be an exception. For stress to fully resolve, the Puell Multiple 30DMA typically needs to dip into the 0.4–0.5 range and then reverse back toward 0.8. Until that turn occurs, miner-driven sell...

BTC : Futures Premium Normalizing Perpetual futures premium has compressed back toward neutral after the pullback. Leveraged positioning has clearly cooled. Earlier in the cycle, elevated premiums reflected strong directional conviction. Now, traders are stepping back rather than aggressively building long or short exposure. This shift signals reduced speculative appetite. Participation in futures has thinned, and leverage is no longer driving momentum the way it did during expansion phases. Wit...

BTC: Exchange Withdrawal Cost Basis in Focus Price is trading just above the 2023 exchange realized price (~$65.9K). This is the core cost basis of the latest cycle buyers. If $65K breaks, a large share of recent participants shifts underwater — sell pressure typically accelerates from there. Next major cost basis sits near $55–56K (2022 cohort). We’re sitting on the line between defense and deeper stress.

BTC : Multiple Cross Indicator Near Transition Price is testing the green line (0.6 × 200DMA / Mayer zone). In the previous cycle, BTC didn’t bottom on the first touch. It broke below the Realized Price and spent time there before forming a durable base. I’m watching for a similar setup. A clean break below the Realized Price would signal deeper stress and likely mark the beginning of a prolonged accumulation phase.

BTC: Short-Term Holders Enter Deep Losses For the first time since January 2022, STH-NUPL has moved deep into negative territory. Recent buyers are now structurally underwater. Historically, this leads to sustained pressure, as short-term holders are forced to sell into weakness. Losses tend to persist until weak hands are fully flushed and absorbed by stronger, long-term capital.

BTC : Capitulation Pressure Builds Capitulation metrics have moved into the upper end of their historical range. This reflects an increase in forced selling rather than discretionary distribution or profit-taking. Risk is being reduced under pressure, not reallocated. Historically, similar conditions coincide with volatility expansion and position resets, not immediate trend resolution. This is a stress phase, not a stabilization phase.

BTC: Spot Volume Reaction, Not Accumulation Spot volume spiked during the drop into the low $60Ks. 7D average shows a clear surge as volatility accelerated. But the expansion faded quickly. No sustained follow-through on the bid side. This looks like reactive selling and short-term repositioning — not broad accumulation. Absorption remains shallow. Without persistent spot demand, price stays vulnerable to further volatility.

BTC : Profitability Continues to Deteriorate Despite setting a second ATH in early October, the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has been trending lower since late July. The metric now sits near ~1.45, confirming a persistent erosion in realized profitability. This is not capitulation (<1), but it is sustained pressure. Profit realization is weakening as loss realization gradually increases. The market’s ability to distribute into strength is fading. Distribution remains dominant over accumulation...